AIAA Certification by Analysis Uncertainty Quantification Working Group

Uncertainty Quantification Challenge Problem




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Contact aiaa.uq4cba.sc@gmail.com with any questions





Goals of the Challenge Problem

The goal is for the aerospace community to develop V&V and UQ frameworks applicable to CbA and demonstrate them on a relevant test case

This involves understanding of:
- Multi-disciplinary sources of uncertainty
- How to categorize and quantify sources
- How to propagate heterogeneous sources of uncertainty
- Determine the impact and relevance of uncertainties w.r.t. certification regulations

The proposed Challenge Problem serves as a testbed to achieve the goals
- It should be neither seen as a pure simulation exercise nor as a full certification of an actual aircraft alteration
- It serves as an industrial-relevant case to develop V&V and UQ frameworks for CbA



AIAA Engage

The AIAA Engage platform is used for communication. Please join our community at Certification by Analysis Uncertainty Quantification Community

Meeting Notes

Meeting Notes are posted to the AIAA Engage Community after each meeting.

August 28th, 2025 Meeting Slides
June 26th, 2025 Meeting Slides and Meeting Recording

Frequently Asked Questions

A Frequently Asked Questions document is maintained and updated regularly with questions from participants and responses from the organizing committee.

V1 - October 1st, 2025

CbA UQ Steering Committee

Philipp Bekemeyer German Aerospace Center (DLR)
Sven Geisbauer German Aerospace Center (DLR)
John Schaefer The Boeing Company
John Macomber The Boeing Company
Thomas Wittenberg The Boeing Company
Simon Coggon Airbus Operations
Matthias Held Airbus Operations
Marcus Gojny Airbus Operations
Casey Denham NASA Langley Research Center
Seung Yoo NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center


For any questions, please contact the organizers at aiaa.uq4cba.sc@gmail.com

NASA Official Responsible for Content
Casey Leigh-Anne Denham

Last Updated
October 2, 2025